Of course none of us know where Arsenal will end up this season.

Winning the league seems very unlikely (although some newspapers are now starting to talk this up as a possibility – probably so they can put Arsene Wenger down again when it doesn’t happen). But coming second in the league and winning the FA Cup is possible.

On the other hand so is coming fourth in the league, and losing in the Cup semi-final to Reading (although that would be horrible) or in the final to Liverpool (also leaving a bad taste).

So where is the dividing line? What actually would be deemed success, and what would be a year of failure?

One of the big problems in answering this is that as the performances of the team improve so does the expectation. Back in December Arsenal were going nowhere fast and those who oppose Arsene Wenger were organising demonstrations and petitions. Forget the fact that he is by far the most successful manager in the history of the club, they wanted him out.

Then the world changed, and now most of these people are quiet – but they have left their mark with the “fourth is not a trophy” campaign.

In fact coming fourth in the Premier League is a trophy of sorts that many clubs like Tottenham and Liverpool would love to get their hands on, and it is the “trophy” that has ensured that we paid for the Emirates Stadium on time. But of course it is not a winners trophy – that is the point that is being made.

So as we all know, last season we won the FA Cup and came fourth. A step up. At the start of this season we won the Charity Shield. What is the absolute minimum that is acceptable this season?

I’m going to be difficult here and say I think there is more to life than just trophies – and I’ll come back to that in a moment, but I suspect many people would argue that first we do need to win a trophy, which means retaining the FA Cup.

Arsenal has only done this once before in its entire history: 2002 and 2003. In fact that was part of an amazing four year spell in the FA Cup, which gave us three wins and a semi-final.

So a second consecutive win would be most welcome and would set us up for a chance at the unprecedented (for Arsenal) three successive FA Cup triumphs. The last time anyone won the FA Cup twice in a row was 2009 and 2010 (Chelsea). The last time anyone won the Cup three times in a row was way back in 1884-6, with Blackburn Rovers. Arsenal weren’t even formed when Rovers got the third of those triumphs.

But now Arsenal is the most successful club in FA Cup history. Arsenal and Man U have both won the cup 11 times and been runners up 7 times. However Arsenal have now just shaded Man U in terms of semi-finals, and of course if we get through and win it, that will be a clear lead over Man U in wins as well as everything else.

So yes, another FA Cup win would be success, and I guess even if we don’t hold on to second in the league, it would still be enough for most people.

But second would be a good bonus – indeed second or third in the league would avoid that annoying qualifying round in the Champions League. We’ve had nine years of coming third or fourth, which of course to the vast majority of clubs (including Liverpool and Tottenham) would be a wonderful achievement, but is not enough for some Arsenal fans.)

The last time we made it to second was 2005, when we won the FA Cup and the Charity Shield. A repeat of that would be very welcome.

But as I mentioned above there is more.

We have the stadium, we have the big financial deals in terms of kit sponsorship and the like, and all the TV and Champions League revenue. And we also have a very solid squad indeed.

In fact it is quite remarkable how fast we’ve been able to move from Arsene Wenger being accused of criminal negligence for not having in place a solid defence at the start of the season, to a situation in which we have so many defenders there is talk of some of them getting edgy because they don’t get enough games. The latest rumour is that Bellerin is going back to Barcelona. I don’t think it is true, but it shows how the rumour mongers work.

Just look at the defence:

Debuchy, Gibbs, Monreal, Chambers, Koscielny, Mertersacker, Gabriel, Bellerin. Eight players all told, and lurking behind them ready to make a step forward there is Hayden, and Toral.

Midfield has never looked a problem:

Rosicky, Arteta, Wilshere, Ramsey, Cazorla, Flamini, Diaby, Ozil, Coquelin, Oxlade Chamberlain. That’s ten, or nine if you don’t want to put Diaby in there. Add to that collection Zelalem and Bielik who are both waiting to step up, and the choice is huge.

Upfront…

Giroud, Walcott, Alexis, Welbeck. And then remember the impact Gnabry made last season before his injury… and Akpom and Sanogo, either of whom could step up next season.

Now the reason I’ve just listed the squad is to add the extra point. This summer I’m sure Arsenal will make another major signing, of the likes of Ozil and Alexis. And I’m fairly certain, two, or at least one of our academy and loan players will indeed step up just like Bellerin and Coquelin did this year.

Whichever way you look at this, this is building into a staggering squad. A squad that really is moving forwards.

And that is my extra point in terms of what is acceptable. To have a squad that is going in the right direction and which improves season by season.

To explain this a little better, let me take you back to Manchester United, in its last year of Sir Alex Ferguson. They won the title that year, but they won it with a squad that was not in a process of constant growth and development, but rather like a squad that had been put together for this one last hurrah.

And that’s all they got. After that they dropped out of the Champions League, just as Liverpool have been used to doing.

Or look at the current Manchester City squad. OK they are only a point or two behind us, but there’s nothing within that squad to make one feel, “one more quality player and this team is going to be unplayable”. Too many of them are becoming irritable or difficult or just plain tired.

In fact what I am going to suggest is that we are moving back to an era akin to 1998-2005 when Arsenal and Man U both had quality, and developing, teams which slogged it out for the top two spots. I wouldn’t be surprised if for a few years to come it is Arsenal and Chelsea fighting for the top two positions.

So to return to my opening question: what would be my requirements for this season? Yes, winning the FA Cup would be very nice, but I wouldn’t call for Wenger’s head if we didn’t. And coming second would be great, but again I wouldn’t be too upset without that.

But what I want most of all is for this squad to stay together in the summer, add another big purchase, and bring through yet another brilliant youngster. Because with a team like that I think we are going to be nearly unstoppable next year.