Read any newspaper or most of the football blogs and you will get the impression that each club has its own transfer budget, which of course is secret, but that the clever writer of a blog or a newspaper column, happens to know all about.

What’s might that writer has the real inside knowledge on just how much the club has to spend and who the club is spending that money on.

Unfortunately if you follow the tale over time it can also become clear that actually the writer doesn’t know what he is talking about because the player he said was certain to sign has just gone to another club. But hey! Never mind! Here’s another player that is sure to join your club. And oh, it turns out that the last signing didn’t happen because the manager was too slow, the chairman too mean, or for some such reason.

So where do all these stories come from? And come to that, what about the 80 or so transfer rumours about players that each Premier League is going to sign each summer window. Why do most of them not arrive? Is it really because of poor management within your club? Or is it something else?

To unravel this, let’s follow another line of enquiry: why does everyone who writes about transfer rumours quote another newspaper, or another blog, or another magazine, or radio station as the source when reporting a transfer rumour. Why do we never hear any story from the original source? Why does no one say, “I have today been told by X that….”

In fact if you do go searching for the real source of the story, and can bothered to translate tales from one language to another, what you will often find is that the tale goes round in a circle. The English blog cites a blog in Chile which sites a blog in Spain which cites the original English blog!

The fact is that most of the time, until the last few days before a transfer is completed, nobody beyond the clubs and player involved, actually knows what is going on.

And how do I know this? The answer is, because of the way people write all these transfer stories.

First, each summer has its own flavour. A few years ago, for example, we used to have a constant stream of “spotted at the airport” tales, in which a player rumoured to be coming to the club was seen arriving. That approach only disappeared after a couple of bloggers started making fun of the approach, going on to talk about players being spotted at a motorway service station, in a layby looking at a map, and so on.

And second, as you will find it you keep count, only about 3% of all these tales turn out to be true.

And yet hour after hour the stories emerge – and here’s the thing, they are all written with such seriousness. A bit like the author of Spiderman looking up from his latest storyline and saying, “It’s all true!”

In fact what these articles are doing is treating football supporters, people like you and I, with utter contempt.

These articles start with a thoroughly misleading headline, stating that a player (who they don’t name) has been bought, or a deal has been arranged, or a price agreed, or a medical is happening tomorrow. We click on the article and we find, a line or two of general chit chat about the club.

And then another line or two about this season’s transfers so far, if any.

Then perhaps something about the manager and what type of player he is said to be looking for.

After that maybe a line or two about anything that might be holding up the transfer.

And then, while we are still searching for the story that was promised in the headline, we normally get a generalised note about the club wanting this player.

It is, in short, a con trick. You only have to look at the headlines to know that. Take for example the eternal tale of one club trying to hi-jack another club’s attempt to buy a player.

Do you really think it is likely that just because Club X wants a player Club Y might then think, “oh that’s a good idea, we’ll offer £10m more and that will show that we are the big kids on the block”?

No of course it doesn’t work like that. Transfers are meticulously planned with players being watched over and over again. Clubs have arrangements with each other through which scouts are allowed to attend matches to watch players. But if there is to be a bid, the process has to go through the club that holds the registration. If a club doesn’t follow the agreed protocol, the other party makes sure it never deals with that club again.

The closest all these rumours and hijack stories come to reality is when a buying club, in confidence, says to the club holding the registration of a player they like, “How would you feel about an offer for x.”

The club holding the registration then have a scale of possible replies. From the top down it reads…

– “No sale, not at any price, go away”
– “We don’t want to sell, so it would have to be a very high offer to make us change our mind,”
– “Put your offer to us and we’ll think”
– “That’s possible but we would want, ££££”
– “Sure, the price is ££. We can tell the media whatever price you want, but basically you can have him for that. He’s getting a bit stale with us, but he could probably be very good if stimulated by a move.”

Of course these sales pitches are dressed by each selling club along the way, but everyone knows the way it goes.

Everything else is fantasy – a make believe. Of course, occasionally the clubs or agents might make something up just to stimulate a bit of trade – suggesting that half a dozen clubs are looking at player x, when in fact no one is, and the selling club are anxious to see him go.

But in a closed industry like football, everyone knows about the other clubs of their sort of size.

Besides which, clubs know that even if they don’t do a deal together this time, the time will come when both sides might want to come to an arrangement. Telling too many tales along the way or making too many enemies, might not matter over one sale or purchase when there are other alternatives available, but it could really harm the next sale or purchase in a year’s time.

And here’s a parting thought. If you see a dozen rumours about your club buying player X Y or Z, and nothing happens, don’t blame the manager and transfer team in your club. It is happening to every other club as well. These tales are just rumours, made up to keep you interested. Don’t ever think that it is your club alone that is failing to buy the right squad.

Just blame the journalist or blogger who made it all up.