Jose Mourinho was a professional footballer before he became a manager, but like so many men who become successful managers, he was not a player at the highest level. In all he played some 94 league games and scored 13 goals in the Portuguese leagues between 1980 and 1987 with lower ranking clubs for the most part, never staying at a club for more than two years never winning a trophy.

As a manager things have been different, and a real pattern has emerged.

First when he stays long enough, he wins trophies. Second he falls out with some of the supporters of the club he manages. Third he sees a problem where he is, claims he isn’t loved enough, and moves on at the end of the contract.

But he’s never led a club that is not just in 16th, but 15 points behind the leading pair (Man City and Arsenal), four points off relegation and in such a dire state that even if they won their next game with those above them lost they would still probably only go up two places.

This change of circumstance makes it hard to predict what will happen now, but we can still draw a reasonable conclusion by looking at his past.

In his first major role at Benfica, the board wanted to appoint Jesualdo Ferreira as his new assistant but Mourinho refused to accept this. Speaking of Ferreira, Mourinho said, “This could be the story of a donkey who worked for 30 years but never became a horse.”

When the presidency of the club changed a few months into Mourinho’s reign the new president said he might change managers. Pushing his luck rather than keeping quiet Mourinho went and asked for a contract extension. The new President refused and Mourinho resigned. He had lasted three months.

He was in his next job with União de Leiria for six months before an offer came in from Porto in 2002. He left, went to Porto, and in 2003 he won the league and in 2004 the Champions League.

As word spread that he was going to leave Porto, Mourinho said in an interview, “Liverpool are a team that interests everyone and Chelsea does not interest me so much”.

Mourninho however accepted an offer to manage Chelsea in 2004 and with all the money he needed he was successful. Friction started to develop in 2007 with the appointment of Avram Grant as a board member who would keep an eye on Mourinho’s behaviour. Mourinho did not like this and walked on 20 September 2007.

What makes the exact moment interesting is that it came after their opening game in the Champions League which saw Chelsea get a 1–1 home draw against Rosenborg BK. Only 24,973 turned up in a stadium holding 41,663. This at a time when even the most meaningless European game at the Emirates would get the European capacity of 59,000. The fans it seems liked the trophies but not the style of play.

Then on 2 June 2008, Mourinho was appointed manager of Internazionale on a three-year contract.

He won the league, but the fans once again didn’t like the style of play. In March 2009, he claimed his rivals would end the season with no trophies and honours and accused the Italian sport journalists of “intellectual prostitution” on their behalf.

Then Mourinho was sent off in the December 2009 game against Juventus when he sarcastically applauded the referee for a free kick decision. In 2010 he was again very critical about refereeing in Italy after two of his players were sent off, and was barred for three matches.

By 2009, his third season, he was openly being jeered by the fans of Inter. They were won back by the winning of the Champions League, but Mourinho left at the end of the season for Real Madrid and the disaffection by some fans continued.

In Madrid and the pattern continued. Significant success, but the fans booed Mourinho before his final game. On announcing his impending departure he said, “I am loved by some clubs, especially one. In Spain it is different, some people hate me, many of you in this room.” The room was full of journalists.

So what now. At Chelsea everything is reversed. He is seemingly still liked by quite a few Chelsea supporters, but the team is struggling. However Mourinho doesn’t seem overwhelmingly happy with the fans in return. In November 2014 the BBC reported that “Boss Jose Mourinho has criticised Chelsea’s support and said Stamford Bridge felt like an “empty stadium” during Saturday’s 2-1 win over QPR.

And this at a time when Chelsea were going nine points clear at the top of the league.

This month the Metro announced that the majority of the squad wanted Mourinho to leave and certainly there has been criticism of Mourinho on Twitter. But other fans are supporting their manager.

The fact is Mourinho doesn’t spend time nurturing friendships or making people feel good. He does his thing, as he feels it should be done. Which means he does antagonise people, and then moves on. He probably would love to stay in one place, but simply can’t understand why people don’t love him all the time.

So what next? The options are simple:

a. Nothing happens and the status quo is maintained at least until the end of the season
b. Mourinho resigns
c. Mourinho is sacked.

My suspicion is that a. is very unlikely. Both Abramovich and Mourinho are strong-minded men, and Mourinho feels he is being persecuted in England by the referees just as he felt he was in Italy and Spain. He might not have all the fans on his back, but any more poor performances and he may well have. He might not have the whole team against him but there is some negativity going on.

But Mourinho has not been the one to leave before. He has chosen the time to go and has gone at the end of a contract.

Which leaves c as by far the most likely option. He will be sacked and the club will announce he has left by mutual consent largely because Abramovich expects a return for his mega investment.

On 19 September 2014 the Daily Telegraph suggested that Roman Abramovich has invested £2bn in Chelsea thus far, and we know that he is expecting to invest another massive amount of money in the new stadium. It seems unlikely that he had 16th place in mind and a manager who is quickly becoming a laughing stock outside of the club and more of a news point than what happens on the pitch.

So for me everything points one way. Mourinho to be sacked, and a caretaker quickly appointed at the very least to ensure they don’t go down.

But there is one other thing that might change. You might just find that the date for the start of development of the ground slips back a little. Like a year or two until the trophies return.