It’s not who replaces Wenger, it’s who replaces the replacement

It’s not who replaces Wenger, it’s who replaces the replacement

In a recent poll in a newspaper the question was asked, who should manage Arsenal next season.  Mr Wenger won.

Which is quite remarkable given that 15% of the managers of Premier League clubs have been replaced since the season opened.  By the start of the 2013/14 season that number is likely to be up to around 40%.  Maybe more.


For managers to stay a long time in the Premier League is rare.  Although not quite as rare as in the Football League where 47% of managers have already gone.  More will follow in the remains of this season, and more during the summer.  50% will certainly have vanished by the time we start again.

But let us stay with Arsenal for the moment.  Mr Wenger is certain to be in place next season, so the whole thing is a trifle hypothetical for now, but even so, it is worth remembering, as and when he does go, Le Boss is as likely to be replaced by someone who is then replaced, as he is to be replaced by someone who stays.

This season in the Premier League  Chelsea (the European Champions), Southampton and Queen’s Park Rangers have moved the top man on.  Fans of different clubs are encouraging owners or boards to move on Brendan Rodgers, Alan Pardew, Martin O’Neill, Sam Allardyce, Brian McDermott,  Paul Lambert, Rafa Benitez, Roberto Mancini (who won the League last season), and yes of course, Arsène Wenger.

Not all of these managers bounce back in English football.  55% of managers in their first job who get the boot, never get another job in management at all.  About one third of the managers in the Premier League who have been or will be sacked this season probably won’t work in England again.

The average time in office for a Premier League manager is just under four years.  But this average is made higher by the existence of two managers of huge longevity – Sir Alex and Mr Wenger.  Take them out of the equation, and at some time in the next ten years both will leave the league, and that average goes down to around two years.

So every summer we have the departures, and then more of them during the season.  Alex McLeish, Kenny Dalglish, and our old chum Harry Redknapp all went last summer, and that was a very modest summer in terms of manager turnover.

So my point is whoever replaces Wenger will also more than likely soon be replaced.

And here’s one other thing: there are some managers out there who really don’t want to work for Chelsea because of the owner.   And there are some managers who don’t want to work at Arsenal, because they know what the media and “fans” (I use the word ironically) will do to them.

Here’s just one example of media twaddle.  You can probably guess where it comes from.

Fans’ Van Persie blunder

When the blinkers go on fans, there is no hope. Sections of Arsenal’s support backed the decision to sell Robin van Persie last summer. The argument then was that he was old (28), injury-prone and the arrival of new players with the £20m Manchester United paid would more than offset the sale. I don’t really need to put anything here, do I?

(This actually turned up originally in the Independent, but was then copied by at least five other newspapers).

Now consider the rather interesting piece of news that in the league Arsenal have scored more goals without RVP than with him.   Of course that doesn’t mean that they wouldn’t have scored even more with RVP, but it is a tiny piece of detail that had the author been aware of it, might have wiped the sneer off his face.  At least just for a second.