When Arsenal defeated Chelsea at the Emirates 3-0 back in September, it would have been hard to believe that the return fixture would see the Gunners behind in second, with the question being raised whether the title race could be all over if Arsene Wenger’s side suffer a defeat at Stamford Bridge.
Of course even after that match next Saturday, there will be 14 matches still to play but an eleven point gap would require a huge drop off in performances by Chelsea to recover the deficit. That is something that has not happened since Chelsea manager Antonio Conte switched to a back three after that humbling defeat against the Gunners.
Consistency has been crucial for the Blues in recent months, not only in results, but more importantly in team selection. I could name the team for you now if all players remain fit for next weekend. A back three of Cahill, David Luiz, Cesar Azpilicueta, a midfield four of Marcos Alonso, N’Golo Kante, Nemanja Matic and Victor Moses, a front three of Eden Hazard, Diego Costa and Pedro Rodriguez.
It is all well and good knowing what Chelsea will do but the question is, can Arsenal stop it? Conte knows all the strengths and weaknesses of the 3-4-3 / 3-5-2 formation. He won three straight Serie A titles with Juventus using it, and reached a European Championship quarter-final with the same system. Since moving to his trusted formation, Conte has lost just once in the league, and that was against Arsenal’s London rivals Spurs earlier this month.
Considering it has been the team’s only sign of weakness since the Gunners last played against them, Arsene Wenger will be studying Tottenham’s 2-0 victory very closely. The first thing he will notice is Maurico Pochettino changed his formation. The Argentine felt that he had to go like for like with Chelsea.
A back three of Jan Vertonghen, Eric Dier and Toby Alderweireld started at White Hart Lane and they matched them across the pitch, pressing them high and compacting the space, reducing Chelsea’s defenders’ time on the ball.
Another important factor in the victory was where Pochettino positioned Dele Alli. The England international was placed wide on the left to exploit the lack of height in Chelsea’s right centre back Azpilicueta. Both goals came from crosses which Alli scored with headers. Chelsea on the day had no response to this change of approach by Pochettino and Wenger will need to be just as smart to get a result at Stamford Bridge.
It would not be insurmountable if the Gunners do lose, but the psychological blow of such a defeat for Arsenal, and the boost that it would give Chelsea, could prove particularly damaging. In many ways Wenger and Arsenal have to lay everything on the line in this encounter. They have to gamble and not be conservative.
This season, especially at Old Trafford and at the Etihad, the Gunners have been far too passive in games against the bigger sides. In this game, they have to take command, surprise Conte with their approach and impose themselves to come out with a win. If they don’t, the prospects of a Premier League title finally being lifted by Arsenal for the first time in 13 years look very remote indeed.
