Although the media has been having a rare old time suggesting that these are dark days for Arsenal, the fact is that for many years now, by late March, the chances of us winning the league has by and large vanished.
Indeed most of the time even though it was mathematically possible for Arsenal to get to the top of the table, it would have required a collapse on a significant scale normally not just by one but by two or three other clubs for Arsenal to have climbed to the top. Clearly the battle for the 2nd, 3rd and 4th positions is between Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur
In fact the last time I can remember Arsenal still being in with a real chance at the end of March was 2011 when we were sitting in second place five points behind Manchester United, with a game in hand and a goal difference that was just four goals worse than Man U.
Sadly we only won two of the remaining games of the season, drawing four and losing three and the chance slipped out of our hands.
On the other hand we have been in four cup finals in the past five seasons, and won three of them, which helped keep the season alive to the very last, and this season of course we do have the Europa League.
In the next round we play CSKA Moscow of course, and they are currently sitting third in their league eight points off the league leaders Lokomotiv with eight games left to play. The top two teams in the league go into the Champions League for the following season, and with CSKA only three points behind Spartak with a game in hand, and both clubs on identical goal differences, CSKA have domestic considerations for next season which are not really going to be bothering Arsenal at the moment.
Apart from ourselves in Moscow the other ties are
- Leipzig v Marseille
- Atlético Madrid v Sporting CP
- Lazio v Salzburg
Leipzig are 6th in the German league, 23 points behind the league leaders. Marseille are third in France, 24 points behind PSG. Neither have any chance of winning their league.
Atletico Madrid in Spain are second, 11 points behind Barcelona, Sporting are third in Portugal just five points off the pace. Sporting may well feel that the domestic league is more of a chance of silverware than the Europa.
Lazio are fifth in Italy 21 points behind Juventus and Red Bull Salzburg are eight points clear at the top of the Austrian league.
Looking at these stats, there are two indicators: how well are the team doing in their own domestic league, and as a result how much are they putting everything into their Europa games as opposed to their domestic league matches.
As I suggested above, CSKA Moscow do have serious hopes of the Champions League next season so there will be no easing up in the league for them, which could help Arsenal.
Marseille could be strong challengers since they have no chance of winning the league but will consider themselves strong challengers for the Europa. The top three in France go into the Champions League and Marseille want to ensure that third spot at least, but they will still fancy their chances in this season’s Europa.
The other major contender I would say is Atletico Madrid, who have just about conceded the League to Barcelona, but will most certainly expect to qualify next season for the Champions League (as with England the top four qualify) and will consider that the Europa is very much in their grasp.
So our season could very much be kept alive not just with the beating of CSKA Moscow in the forthcoming round, but also if we avoid Diego Simeone and his formidable Atletico Madrid side and the none too shabby Ligue 1 outfit Marseille in the semi-finals. Those two pitted against each other would see Arsenal playing the winners of Lazio and Salzburg.
Of course such fanciful forward planning doesn’t generally work out, and who knows what Uefa might get up to in the draw with hot and cold or magnetically polarised balls to be drawn out of the hat. (Or maybe it really is all fair – I couldn’t possibly say).
But there is a real chance we could be in Lyon for the final on 16 May, three days after our final League game – away to Huddersfield Town. In fact we have two league matches scheduled for after the second leg of the Europa league semis – the other is at home to Burnley.
So if we do get to the final, I would expect a few youngsters to have a bit of a chance of a game prior to the last match. Especially as they will be putting in a claim for a regular first team place next season.